Technically available potential energy of the Sun on the territory of Ukraine is estimated at 42 million tons of b.c., including electric-29.5 million tons of b.c. or 34.2 billion kWh/year. Our practical experience shows that at current level of technologies and efficiency of photovoltaic equipment the annual performance ratio in our country can achieve levels from 1050 till 1350 kWh per 1 kWp of solar panels depending on location. It is quite reasonable range to stimulate implementation of new solar power plants over all territory of Ukraine. We think that renewable energy sources can cover potentially 50-80% of total electricity consumption in the future. Of course, a lot of work (legal, technical, etc) is required for it.
One of the reasons of movement to renewable energy is a reduction of the cost of solar energy technologies. There are a lot of assumptions about the reduction technology RES. Each of approaches has own reasons, but who is right we will know only in some years. Technologies and markets are changed so quickly. At the moment our cost estimations are €0,75 per Wp for ground based PV installations and €0,70 per Wp for roof based PV installations in 2030. We think that rooftops will be €0,05 per Wp cheaper than ground mounted PV. Our cost levels are actual for 100 kWp – 1 MWp installations. Are we right? Will see. It is just a current prediction.
It is important to use land area in the best way. But we are not sure that it is power generation. But roofs often are not used for nothing. Can we cover our energy needs just by using of free roofs? It seems that average potential to cover the roof of private, apartment buildings, commercial and budget organizations with the solar panels is 30-50% of total roof surface. It is limited by technical confines of each individual roof. But not all roofs will be covered with solar panels till 2050 in our country. We would predict 40-50% of them. Does it enough? The question is open now.
Solar industry - it is not PV only. Geliocollectors are good tool to get heat using solar energy. However, there is an issue how to utilize heat produced by collectors during summer. It is reasonable to use solar collectors to cover 70-100% of hot water usage during summer and 0-15% during winter. So this 'solar-to-heat' technology will not so popular in Ukraine, we think. But PV panels is and will be more popular due to fact that electricity is more suitable kind of energy for usage. Of course, PV panels will be used more frequently in residential buildings outside big cities, where available roof surface is lower per each habitant.
Are any prospects for the potential use solar panels for large industrial plants with the goal of self-reliance with electricity? It is necessary to remember about some key drivers: cost of electricity, level of green tariff, profile of electricity consumption, distance between energy generation and consumption. Main problem is what to do with solar electricity in case when current consumption will be less than generation. It is necessary to have possibility to sell it to the grid which will work as infinite energy storage for the solar generating unit. If this moment will be regulated taking into account interests of all stakeholders, we see big prospects for the use solar panels for large industrial plants. Obviously, a future of solar industry will be connected with self-consumption schemes versus state regulation with a help of green tariffs or by other tools.
Ukrainian government is using just FIT to stimulate industry, now. But it is temporary measure. We think that introduce other direct stimulating mechanisms are necessary. The first steps can be the following. Government should to minimize cost of grid connection or even cover it and cut other formal difficulties for all private or legal entities who plan to install RES. Taking into account possible future reduction of solar plants’ cost and technology improvement, just formal limitations can slow a wide implementation of solar and other technologies after 2030. Current aim is increasing of the share of renewable energies in the total power balance of Ukraine up to 21% in 2035. It is very ambitious and difficult task. It is necessary to start open discussion how to do it. People, business, government, Earth all together are interested in clean future. Rentechno proposes - let's move forward.